Skip to main content

Full text of "Rapid Population Growth Consequences And Policy Implications"

See other formats


Food Supply
Tables 1 and 2 summarize our projections for major world regions, first for calorie consumption of food and, second, for consumption of energy in metric tons of coal equivalent. For food, it is interesting to note that the consumption trends of the decade mid-1950's to mid-1960's projected ahead to the year 2000 (Table 1, Column 3) indicate a total only about 10 percent less than what world consumption would be if everyone had the number of calories per day that the average U.S. citizen had in 1965. However, special warning is necessary here. Large and serious deficiencies in animal proteins and vitamins would remain in the world's average diet even if the gap in calories were filled. Figure 1 shows how much lower are the values of the estimated food supplies in the LDC's than those in the developed countries. These differences are due largely to deficiencies in high-value animal products—meat, fish, milk, and eggs—in the diets of less developed countries. Therefore, even the rate of increase of the 10-year base period of the mid-1950's to the mid-1960's (Table 1, Column 3) would not wipe out dietary
TABLE 1
Projections of Calorie Consumption in the Year 2000 Compared with Prewar and 1965 Actual Consumption
(billions of calories per day)
Actual
Calorie Consumption in the Year 2000 ifb
			Trend of 1952-56 to	World Is at U.S. 1965 per Capita	World Is at West Europe 1965 per
			1963-65	Consumption	Capita
	Prewar	1965	Continues	Level	Level
World	5,200	7,800	19,800	22,100	21,100
Northern America	460	680	1,190	1,190	1,130
Latin America	280	640	2,350	2,170	2,060
Western Europe	750	980	1,440	1,230	1,170
East Europe and U.S.S.R.	800a	l,100a	2,6 00a	1,800	1,720
Communist Asia	l,100a	l,400a	2,900a	4,400	4,200
Noncommunist Asia	l,400a	2,200a	7,000a	8,500	8,100
Africa	400a	710a	2,200a	2,700	2,600
Oceania	36	60	110	110	100
fVery rough estimate by the authors.
"United  Nations' population projections multiplied by  levels of consumption as indicated (see text).
Sources: Prewar and 1965 actual: United Nations' population data multiplied by indicated consumption levels from (2, 3, 4).turned to the difficult exercise of projecting resource demands by major world regions. Based on the most recent high population projections of the United Nations (3.295 billion in 1965 projected to 4.551 billion in 1980 and 6.994 billion in 2000), our rough estimates of the materials which would be consumed in the year 2000 were made under each of the following assumptions: